A debt call we should have seen coming Washington Post
An earlier jolt might at least have injected some rationality into a political process that the supposedly all-knowing market consistently overestimated. It might have had a chastening effect on congressional Republicans’ willingness to play with fiscal fire.
I kept waiting throughout the debt-ceiling debate for Wall Street to wake up to the fact that Washington is not nearly as functional as the market calculated. Instead, Wall Street assumed that because default was unthinkable, it did not have to price that possibility into its risk assessment.
Did any of these wizards ever listen to a speech by Michele Bachmann or her fellow Tea Partyers? Rather than turning a crisis into an opportunity, Republicans turned an opportunity into a crisis — one just narrowly averted.
Having underreacted to the default risk, the market is overreacting now. Nothing in Standard & Poor’s analysis should surprise the average newspaper reader, no less a titan of finance.
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