Real Estate Forecast: Home Prices Limp into 2012 BusinessWeek
Home sale prices in the U.S. are expected to fall a further 2.4 percent in the second half of 2011, compared to the first half, as bank-owned properties drive down prices, unemployment remains high, and consumer confidence stays weak, according to a report released Friday, July 8, by Truckee (Calif.)-based data and valuation firm Clear Capital . Of 50 U.S. markets tracked for the report, only five metro areas are forecast to produce home-price gains in the second half: Washington, New York, Orlando, Dallas, and San Francisco.
U.S. home prices fell by 3.2 percent in the first six months of 2011 compared to the previous half, with median home prices dropping to $170,000, despite a 0.9 percent increase in the second quarter, estimates Clear Capital. The peak of the market was in summer of 2006, at $240,000, indicating a median price decline of nearly 31 percent since then.
The modest increase in the second quarter may be seasonal, as homebuying typically picks up in the warmer months. It is nonetheless encouraging, says Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. "That’s not bad, as we’re under heavy inventory levels, high unemployment, and consumer confidence levels are not where they need to be," he says. "It’s not the type of increase that signifies a V-shaped recovery. It will be more muted."
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